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1512 St Gallen Report

Week 21 2020 Complimentary Market: Activision Blizzard

Our complimentary market analysis this week looks at Activision Blizzard.

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Activision Blizzard

Indicator 1: Commitments of Traders Data

Score: 34.91 / 100

The Commitments of Traders indicator for Activision Blizzard shows a reading of 34.91, resulting in a breach of the indicator’s desired 39 for single stocks. This means that Commercials seem to have become extremely short during Activision Blizzard’s recent upwards run. The CoT indicator suggests to the model a strong confidence in a price direction change.

Activision Blizzard

 

Indicator 2: Valuation

Score: 98.55 / 100

The model’s Valuation Indicator has also breached its desired 80 score. Furthermore, the current reading is close to its absolute maximum, which suggests a move to the downside in the very near future.

Activision Blizzard

 

Indicator 3: Retail (The Crowd) vs Professional

Score: 84 / 100

The Crowd Indicator (the upper red line) score of 84 reads extremely high and has done for about 7 weeks. Therefore, the Crowd seems to have become very bullish towards Activision Blizzard during its recent upwards move. The Crowd indicator suggests that retail investors are more often than not on the wrong side, suggesting a price direction change.

Activision Blizzard

 

Indicator 4: Trend Strength

Score: 29.91/ 100

The model’s Trend Strength Indicator reads 29.91 which is below the indicator’s desired 40 score. In February and March, however, the Trend Strength Indicator has reached the 40-mark and the Trend Strength Indicator has begun rising again in the past week. This current change of direction is a sign to the model that the market is looking for a top.

Activision Blizzard

 

Indicator 5: Seasonals

Direction / Timescale: N/A / N/A

Due to a lack of data, the Seasonals Indicator is not available for Activision Blizzard.

Activision Blizzard

 

Indicator 6: Overbought / Oversold

Score: 92.05 Short-term, 87.45 Mid-term

The model’s Overbought / Oversold Indicator suggest that Activision Blizzard is, with a score of 92.05 out of 100, overbought in the short-run and, with a score of 87.45, also overbought in the mid-term. This means that this indicator suggests a change of price direction in the short-term, followed by a formation of a mid-term top.

Activision Blizzard

 

Indicator 7: Driving Force

Driver: Commercials

The Driving Force Indicator for Activision Blizzard shows that the fear in the market (the grey line), which is driven by retail investors, is close to historical peaks. This is a sign of weakness in the market. The grey indicator should still rise a bit further to anticipate a mid-term price direction change, however, all requirements are checked for the Driving Force indicator to suggest a short-term trend change.

Activision Blizzard

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